415
FXUS64 KBMX 172308
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR BY EARLY
THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH INCREASED CHANCES TOWARD MID
TO LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A WARM AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN 90F IN SPOTS. SATELLITE
SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AREAS EAST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR ARE FAVORED FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST 12Z CAMS
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DO HINT AT A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA STATE LINE LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING A BIT OF
RAINFALL, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIM OVERALL.
RIDGING REMAINS PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
MID-WEEK AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DRIVES A
FRONT INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BEING CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS, WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
STALLS. SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
DRIVE THESE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
12
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS RIDGING REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY. GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT BHM AND TCL.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT AUO
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER, LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AREAS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 89 65 88 / 0 20 10 0
ANNISTON 64 88 65 87 / 10 20 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 89 69 89 / 0 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 64 90 68 89 / 0 10 10 10
CALERA 64 89 67 88 / 0 20 10 0
AUBURN 66 88 67 87 / 20 20 10 0
MONTGOMERY 65 90 67 89 / 0 30 10 0
TROY 64 88 65 89 / 0 30 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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