684
FXUS64 KBMX 180341
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1041 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND BECOME A DAILY
FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION
- WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO START OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AS OF WRITING, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINED ACROSS THE BORDER IN GEORGIA WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE. MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A PASSING H85-H7 SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
AN EXPANDING PLUME OF HEALTHY MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE AREA OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LOSE ITS GRASP BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SINK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY STALLING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, THE STALLED FRONT RETREATS BACK TO
THE NORTH, LEAVING AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS RIDGING REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY. GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT BHM AND TCL.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT AUO
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 88 64 88 / 0 10 10 10
ANNISTON 64 87 65 88 / 0 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 66 89 69 89 / 0 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 64 89 69 90 / 0 10 10 0
CALERA 64 89 67 90 / 0 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 67 89 / 30 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 64 89 66 90 / 0 30 10 10
TROY 64 88 65 89 / 0 20 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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