883
FXUS64 KBMX 181733
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME A DAILY
FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION.
- WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO START OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AS OF WRITING, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINED ACROSS THE BORDER IN GEORGIA WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE. MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A PASSING H85-H7 SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
AN EXPANDING PLUME OF HEALTHY MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE AREA OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LOSE ITS GRASP BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SINK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY STALLING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, THE STALLED FRONT RETREATS BACK TO
THE NORTH, LEAVING AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA INITIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF MGM, THEN POTENTIALLY
NORTHWARD TO BHM/EET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY
RIDGING ALOFT. PROB30S ARE INCLUDED AT MGM/EET/BHM, WHILE AT
AUO/TCL PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT AND WILL NOT BE
MENTIONED. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY TSRA.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 65 88 65 87 / 10 10 10 70
ANNISTON 65 88 66 86 / 10 0 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 70 89 70 87 / 30 0 10 70
TUSCALOOSA 69 90 69 88 / 20 0 20 50
CALERA 67 90 67 88 / 30 0 10 60
AUBURN 67 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 68 90 69 89 / 20 0 10 40
TROY 66 90 68 89 / 20 0 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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