163
FXUS64 KBMX 181851
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
151 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS NEAR
90 DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST (40-70%) CHANCES IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY
AREAS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER THE GULF, SOUTHEAST CONUS, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, THOUGH
THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS WITH A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL WE ARE IN A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN,
INDICATING THE BEGINNING OF THE SUMMER CONVECTIVE SEASON. SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA, IN AN AREA OF
1.5 INCH GOES-DERIVED PWAT VALUES LIFTING NORTHWARD. LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
AIDED BY THIS ENHANCEMENT IN MOISTURE AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER, RIDGING ALOFT AND A LACK
OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE.
MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL UPDRAFT INTENSITY, WITH SEVERE STORMS BEING UNLIKELY, BUT
WITH DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
HEIGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WHILE SOME LOWER PWATS
ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. THE DAYTIME HOURS LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY
AND WARM ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE STALLING COLD FRONT OVER MISSISSIPPI AIDED BY SOME WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
AND ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
TUESDAY NIGHT. CAMS GENERALLY INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY MORE OR LESS
FALLING APART, BUT LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR NORTHWEST, WITH ELEVATED
PWATS IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCHES LINGERING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, HIGHEST FAR NORTHWEST. POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING WILL
BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, WITH RIDGING BEING SUPPRESSED
TO THE GULF. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND CONTINUED LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD IN THE 40-70% RANGE, LOWER THAN THAT IN THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT, BUT OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH DETAILS DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND MCVS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20-25KTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AT TIMES, WITH
CONVECTION BEING OF THE "PULSE" VARIETY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTANCES MAY OCCUR. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD MOSTLY BE
BENEFICIAL, THOUGH IF SOME AREAS GET SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA INITIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF MGM, THEN POTENTIALLY
NORTHWARD TO BHM/EET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY
RIDGING ALOFT. PROB30S ARE INCLUDED AT MGM/EET/BHM, WHILE AT
AUO/TCL PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT AND WILL NOT BE
MENTIONED. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY TSRA.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40-50% RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION, WITH HIGHER MIN RH VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 65 88 65 87 / 10 10 10 70
ANNISTON 65 88 66 86 / 10 0 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 70 89 70 87 / 30 0 10 70
TUSCALOOSA 69 90 69 88 / 20 0 20 50
CALERA 67 90 67 88 / 30 0 10 60
AUBURN 67 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 68 90 69 89 / 20 0 10 40
TROY 66 90 68 89 / 20 0 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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