489
FXUS64 KBMX 190338
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1038 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
90 DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST
(40-70%) CHANCES IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH
TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT (1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA)
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WORK UP THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A H7 SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN
HELPING GUIDE THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WANE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW (20-30%), I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED AS A STOUT UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST OFF TO OUR WEST.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
MAY KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING A BIT LONGER AND MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
WE WILL HANG ONTO LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INTERACT WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE WHICH WILL HELP
SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE, ROUGHLY 1-2" ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOP AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND,
THE STALLED FRONT RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH, LEAVING PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONTINUED BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. THE KBMX RADAR
REVEALS ISOLATED CONVECTION, GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, I HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30 MENTION
FOR TSRA AT BHM/EET/MGM/TCL THROUGH 04Z. DRIER AIR ALONG THE
AL/GA STATE LINE WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION CLEAR OF AUO. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
MINRHS IN THE 40-50% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION, WITH HIGHER MIN RH
VALUES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 65 88 65 87 / 10 0 0 70
ANNISTON 65 88 65 87 / 10 10 0 50
BIRMINGHAM 70 89 70 87 / 30 0 10 60
TUSCALOOSA 69 90 69 88 / 10 0 20 40
CALERA 67 90 67 89 / 30 0 10 40
AUBURN 67 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 68 90 69 89 / 20 0 10 30
TROY 66 90 68 89 / 20 10 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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