771
FXUS64 KBMX 191804
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
104 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90
DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE FAR
NORTH AND LOWER 90S THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST
(40-70%) CHANCES IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
- HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH
TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT (1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA).
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN US THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, PUTTING AL ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL CAUSE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
FLOW, WHICH WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE STATE. A
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, STALLING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE
SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IT WILL BRING
ENOUGH FORCING FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
TODAY, INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG, WITH LI VALUES
IN THE -4 RANGE COULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH
MOISTURE ISN'T AS IMPRESSIVE, WITH PW VALUES HOVERING JUST HIGHER
THAN THE 75TH PERCENTILE. CAMS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND FOR AN ISOLATED CELL ACTIVITY, THOUGH IF ANYTHING DOES
FORM, IT SHOULD BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE LACK OF
MOISTURE. A LINE OF STORMS WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STATE BY THIS EVENING. CAMS ARE SHOWING A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE LINE WILL WEAKEN, WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD LINGER IN THE
EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, GREATER INSTABILITY, BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 J/KG, WITH LI VALUES UP TO -6, AND PW VALUES
INCREASING TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE COULD SUPPORT GREATER STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON HOW STRONG THESE
STORMS COULD BE, WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW GREAT THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING, AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL
HAPPEN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK, SO ANY
STORM SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PULSE LIKE. WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE, AND
ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES A SLOW MOVER MAY SEE A LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNT OF RAIN TOTALS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR THE DIURNAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND REMAINING THROUGH THE EARLY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY, WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING. WITH GREATER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THAT STALLED AND WEAKENING
BOUNDARY, AND CLOSER TO THE LOW, COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH SIMILAR INSTABILITY VALUES,
WIND PROFILES, AND LI VALUES AS WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH RAIN RATES, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTING
WINDS IN EACH STORM. BY THE WEEKEND, THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST, STRENGTHENING WITH TIME, AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING PW VALUES
ELEVATED AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AN AVERAGE OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL, WITH A GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST, HIGHER
VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE GREATER FOCUS OF
CONVECTION, AND LOWER VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, BECAUSE
OF THE HIGH PW VALUES, SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS (AT TIMES), AND
THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME STRONG, AREAS THAT RECEIVE STORMS, OR
EVEN TRAINING STORMS, WILL LIKELY SEE MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE WEEK IN THE 90S, COOLING SLIGHTLY
TO THE UPPER 80S. WITH THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION, EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES MAY FEEL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER, THE HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S IN
THE FAR NORTH, AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. MANY
DAYS COULD FEEL STIFLING AND WITH MORE ACTIVITIES OUTSIDE, HEAT
STRESS COULD OCCUR QUICKLY IN THOSE NOT TAKING PROPER
PRECAUTIONS.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON TIMING AND COVERAGE NEAR ANY TAF
SITE, SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF EACH TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERALL FOR WEDNESDAY, SO LEFT VRB IN MANY TAFS FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
24
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
MINRHS IN THE 40-50% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE, WITH RH VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH A GREATER CONCENTRATION IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST, BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 87 64 86 / 0 60 40 60
ANNISTON 66 87 64 86 / 0 50 40 50
BIRMINGHAM 70 87 67 86 / 10 60 50 50
TUSCALOOSA 70 88 67 86 / 10 50 60 40
CALERA 68 89 65 88 / 0 40 50 30
AUBURN 68 89 67 89 / 0 30 30 20
MONTGOMERY 70 89 68 89 / 10 30 30 20
TROY 69 89 68 89 / 10 40 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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