298
FXUS64 KBMX 201133
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
633 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN
NORTHWEST AREAS.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A MINOR TO
MODERATE DAILY HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AS IT NEARS THE MS/AL STATELINE. IF ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA, IT WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST AREAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
STATE TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE SEVERAL
H5 IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EACH
DAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAJORITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE-LIKE STORMS AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE. GREATEST CHANCES EACH DAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK
TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND, LEAVING A PLUME OF MOIST AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. BOUTS OF H5 ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DAILY. SELECT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH.
THIS WOULD HELP PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UP RECENTLY WITH 2-3" FORECAST
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AREAS. AREAS BACK TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL SEE
AROUND 1" OR LESS. WITH THAT SAID, POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF THESE STORMS TURN INTO EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. LATEST LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE
FOR AMOUNTS OVER 3".
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR HIGHS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO
THE MID 80S DAILY. THOSE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 90. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST.
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT
RISK DAILY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT
THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 FORECAST. MVFR
THEN IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
AFTER 6Z IN ADVANCE OF OUR SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. A MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE IN/DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. ONLY CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO MENTION TS FOR AUB IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WILL HOLD OFF AT THE OTHER TERMINALS FOR NOW WITH ONLY AN SHRA
MENTION.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A STALLED COLD FRONT AND CONTINUED BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER 50% DAILY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 64 84 64 / 60 50 70 70
ANNISTON 86 64 84 65 / 60 50 50 50
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 85 67 / 20 50 60 60
TUSCALOOSA 87 68 86 68 / 20 50 60 70
CALERA 89 66 86 66 / 20 40 50 50
AUBURN 89 68 87 68 / 50 30 30 20
MONTGOMERY 89 68 88 68 / 40 40 30 20
TROY 89 68 88 67 / 50 40 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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