202
FXUS64 KBMX 202329
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AIDED
BY WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A HUMID AIR MASS. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN; HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PLUS THE PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A
NEARBY FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME ACTIVITY OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF
THE MAIN AFTERNOON-EVENING DIURNAL WINDOW.
WHILE FLOW ALOFT ISN'T ALL THAT STRONG, THERE ARE A FEW PERIODS
FROM FRIDAY TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BULK SHEAR AS HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS, WHICH COULD YIELD AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A COUPLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IF FAVORABLY TIMED
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
A POSITIVE TREND IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT,
WITH TIME, OF THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST/OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT, IT WOULD INCREASE THE ODDS OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN TOTALS ENCOMPASSING MORE OF CENTRAL ALABAMA VS.
EARLIER SIGNALS OF THEM BEING CONFINED TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. KEEP
IN MIND THAT THIS IS A MULTI-DAY WEATHER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO DON'T EXPECT TO GET ALL THE GOODS
IMMEDIATELY. SIMILAR TO A SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN, SOME FOLKS
WILL LUCK OUT WITH RAINFALL ON ONE DAY, OTHERS THE NEXT, AND SO
ON.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VIS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE. VFR RETURNS BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A DAILY SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LACK OF LOW RH WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 84 63 84 / 60 70 60 80
ANNISTON 65 84 64 84 / 50 60 50 70
BIRMINGHAM 67 84 66 83 / 60 60 60 80
TUSCALOOSA 67 85 67 82 / 60 60 60 90
CALERA 66 86 66 84 / 60 50 50 80
AUBURN 68 86 67 86 / 40 40 30 50
MONTGOMERY 68 87 67 86 / 40 40 30 60
TROY 68 88 67 86 / 40 20 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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