538
FXUS64 KBMX 210339
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1039 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE, A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION HAS LED TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EACH DAY WILL
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE-LIKE STORMS AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. GREATEST CHANCES EACH DAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND, LEAVING A PLUME OF MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. BOUTS OF H5 ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SELECT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH.
THIS WOULD HELP PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UP RECENTLY WITH 2-3.5" FORECAST
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AREAS. AREAS BACK TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL SEE
AROUND 1" OR LESS. WITH THAT SAID, POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF THESE STORMS TURN INTO EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. LATEST LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE (40-60%)
CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS OVER 3" AND LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS
OVER 4".
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR HIGHS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO
THE MID 80S DAILY. THOSE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 90. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST.
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT
RISK DAILY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT
THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VIS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE. VFR RETURNS BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A DAILY SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LACK OF LOW RH WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 82 64 81 / 80 70 70 90
ANNISTON 65 82 65 81 / 70 60 60 90
BIRMINGHAM 67 82 66 81 / 80 50 60 90
TUSCALOOSA 67 83 67 81 / 60 70 80 90
CALERA 66 84 66 82 / 70 50 60 90
AUBURN 68 86 68 84 / 50 20 20 60
MONTGOMERY 68 86 68 83 / 50 30 30 70
TROY 68 87 68 84 / 30 10 10 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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