827
FXUS64 KBMX 210528
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE, A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION HAS LED TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EACH DAY WILL
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE-LIKE STORMS AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. GREATEST CHANCES EACH DAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND, LEAVING A PLUME OF MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. BOUTS OF H5 ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SELECT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH.
THIS WOULD HELP PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UP RECENTLY WITH 2-3.5" FORECAST
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AREAS. AREAS BACK TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL SEE
AROUND 1" OR LESS. WITH THAT SAID, POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF THESE STORMS TURN INTO EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. LATEST LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE (40-60%)
CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS OVER 3" AND LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS
OVER 4".
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR HIGHS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO
THE MID 80S DAILY. THOSE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 90. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST.
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT
RISK DAILY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT
THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, WITH A DECREASE IN THUNDER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES OVER A TAF SITE. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND FOR
POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING, ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR IN EACH TAF FOR NOW, AND
WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. AFTER A LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE
MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE.
24
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A DAILY SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LACK OF LOW RH WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 82 64 81 64 / 70 70 90 90
ANNISTON 82 65 81 65 / 60 60 90 80
BIRMINGHAM 82 66 81 66 / 50 60 90 90
TUSCALOOSA 83 67 81 67 / 70 80 90 90
CALERA 84 66 82 66 / 50 60 90 90
AUBURN 86 68 84 68 / 20 20 60 70
MONTGOMERY 86 68 83 69 / 30 30 70 60
TROY 87 68 84 69 / 10 10 50 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...24
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