582
FXUS64 KBMX 212321
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY,
MAY 22ND FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE A
BRIEF TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
WE'LL BE IN A RELATIVELY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FROM NOW INTO
NEXT WEEK. DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS ALONG WITH REPEATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT.
THIS'LL PROMOTE A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BOUTS OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A NEARBY
SURFACE FRONT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW, PLUS INFLUENCE FROM
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
OF SHORT-TERM INTRIGUE IS THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOMORROW/FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN TO BRING BULK SHEAR NEAR
25 KNOTS ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD EXHIBITING SOME
CURVATURE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS, JUST WITHIN
RANGE OF THE PARAMETER SPACE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. ADDITIONALLY,
MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY (HREF IS BETWEEN 1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG). THIS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATION. BASED ON
THE OVERALL SETUP, THE LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONG/ROTATING CELL
SHOULD BE BRIEF AS UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE HAMPERED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES. ON THAT SAME NOTE, DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE THE LIFELINE OF THIS SORT OF ACTIVITY, SO THE THREAT
WINDOW LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. WE'LL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY ISOLATED CELLS OR CELLS ON THE EDGE OF
SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF, LOW-END
TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS IS A LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
RISK.
OTHERWISE, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OFFER MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ANY HEAVY ACTIVITY COULD TOTAL AS MUCH AS TWO
TO FOUR INCHES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT. VFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30 FOR TSRA MAINTAINED
THROUGH 4Z-5Z THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION.
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR IFR. PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT DUE TO PATCHY FOG. MVFR CEILINGS HOLD ON FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THURSDAY, WITH FURTHER PROB30 FOR TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON
12
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A DAILY SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LACK OF LOW RH WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 80 63 82 / 60 80 90 90
ANNISTON 64 80 64 81 / 60 70 80 90
BIRMINGHAM 66 80 65 82 / 60 90 80 80
TUSCALOOSA 67 79 66 84 / 60 90 80 80
CALERA 66 81 65 84 / 60 90 80 90
AUBURN 68 84 67 81 / 20 50 70 90
MONTGOMERY 68 82 67 83 / 30 60 60 90
TROY 67 84 68 83 / 10 50 50 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...12
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