614
FXUS64 KBMX 220452
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY,
MAY 22ND FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE A
BRIEF TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ADJACENT TO A STALLED FRONT, PUMPING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS ALABAMA TO KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND HUMID.
FOR TODAY, A LEVEL 1 OF 5 MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF, LOW-END TORNADO. BULK
SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
BRIEFLY SUSTAINING WEAK UPDRAFTS, ALONG WITH 1200-2000 J/KG
SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND 0-3 KM SRH IN THE 100-200 M2/S2 RANGE.
THESE NUMBERS SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT CELLS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
BRIEFLY ROTATE. WHILE TORNADOES ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED,
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS AND SHOULD BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM SHOULD MAKE
UPDRAFTS HARD TO MAINTAIN OVER TIME AND LIMIT ANY HAIL THREAT.
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE MORNING TO
EARLY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA NORTHWEST OF I-
85. LATEST CAMS INDICATE ACTIVITY WANING AFTER 7 OR 8 PM THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE EVENING.
AN UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER EAST
TEXAS, REINFORCING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEPING ELEVATED RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL
BEGIN TO ADD UP OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION.
12
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT. VFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30 FOR TSRA MAINTAINED
THROUGH 4Z-5Z THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION.
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR IFR. PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT DUE TO PATCHY FOG. MVFR CEILINGS HOLD ON FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THURSDAY, WITH FURTHER PROB30 FOR TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON
12
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A DAILY SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LACK OF LOW RH WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 65 78 65 82 / 70 90 70 90
ANNISTON 65 78 66 81 / 50 80 60 90
BIRMINGHAM 67 77 67 82 / 70 90 70 90
TUSCALOOSA 68 78 69 83 / 60 90 60 80
CALERA 67 78 67 82 / 70 90 60 90
AUBURN 68 82 69 82 / 30 60 50 100
MONTGOMERY 69 80 69 82 / 50 90 50 100
TROY 68 82 69 83 / 20 60 50 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12
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