828
FXUS64 KBMX 221153
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY,
MAY 22ND FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE A
BRIEF TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ADJACENT TO A STALLED FRONT, PUMPING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS ALABAMA TO KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND HUMID.
FOR TODAY, A LEVEL 1 OF 5 MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF, LOW-END TORNADO. BULK
SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
BRIEFLY SUSTAINING WEAK UPDRAFTS, ALONG WITH 1200-2000 J/KG
SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND 0-3 KM SRH IN THE 100-200 M2/S2 RANGE.
THESE NUMBERS SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT CELLS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
BRIEFLY ROTATE. WHILE TORNADOES ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED,
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS AND SHOULD BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM SHOULD MAKE
UPDRAFTS HARD TO MAINTAIN OVER TIME AND LIMIT ANY HAIL THREAT.
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE MORNING TO
EARLY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA NORTHWEST OF I-
85. LATEST CAMS INDICATE ACTIVITY WANING AFTER 7 OR 8 PM THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE EVENING.
AN UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER EAST
TEXAS, REINFORCING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEPING ELEVATED RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL
BEGIN TO ADD UP OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION.
12
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A LINE OF STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THIS LINE,
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY MID MORNING
IN EACH TAF, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR IS SO HIGH, ANY THUNDERSTORM OVER A
TAF SITE WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO IFR OR LIFR DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN. LATER THIS EVENING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
HIGH WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF SHOWERS SPORADICALLY OVER CENTRAL AL.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIKELY DROP, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
MUCH. LEFT MVFR CEILINGS IN FOR NOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON
FRIDAY.
24
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A DAILY SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LACK OF LOW RH WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 78 65 82 64 / 90 70 90 60
ANNISTON 78 66 81 65 / 80 60 90 60
BIRMINGHAM 77 67 82 67 / 90 70 90 60
TUSCALOOSA 78 69 83 68 / 90 60 80 50
CALERA 78 67 82 67 / 90 60 90 60
AUBURN 82 69 82 68 / 60 50 100 50
MONTGOMERY 80 69 82 68 / 90 50 100 40
TROY 82 69 83 68 / 60 50 90 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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