216
FXUS64 KBMX 051822
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
122 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING
SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 24-HOURS, BEFORE SLOWLY STARTING TO RETROGRADE TO THE SE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO TREK EAST ACROSS TEXAS, WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE TROUGH REACHING OUR AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CLOSED
LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY, SHUTTING DOWN THE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY. HOWEVER,
THAT DOES NOT MEAN RAIN CHANCES WILL COMPLETELY END, AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLIMB DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER-80S BY
THURSDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
FOR ANOTHER DAY. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10KTS
ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH MIXING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE COMING DAYS. DUE TO
RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE, FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINRH VALUES BETWEEN 30-50 PERCENT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE VALUES TO REBOUND AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN STARTING SATURDAY AND ON INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 88 68 84 / 0 0 10 40
ANNISTON 62 89 69 84 / 0 0 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 65 88 71 84 / 0 0 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 66 89 72 84 / 0 10 40 80
CALERA 63 90 70 86 / 0 0 20 50
AUBURN 64 88 70 86 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 64 91 71 87 / 0 0 10 40
TROY 62 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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