877
FXUS64 KBMX 051937
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
237 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING
SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON
SATELLITE, EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE NOTED. FAIR AND LESS HUMID WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE
MORE DAY FOR ALL AND FOR MANY ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. NOW INTO SATURDAY, THE RIDGE CENTER
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE SOUTHEAST AS THE OVERALL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES OVERALL ARE GETTING BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS THIS WEEKEND IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
PROPAGATE PERIODICALLY AROUND A DEEP SOUTH AND GULF UPPER RIDGE
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE GULF RIDGE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS YIELDING A RETURN TO DAILY
CONVECTION CHANCES. BY TUESDAY, THIS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO A
LARGER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA, SOUTHWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES, FURTHER INTO EASTERN CONUS, AND DIPPING INTO ALABAMA
WITH CONTINUED DAILY CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE
TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF IT RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER BUT STILL PRESENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE FINISH THE EXTENDED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
FOR ANOTHER DAY. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10KTS
ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH MIXING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE COMING DAYS. DUE TO
RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE, FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINRH VALUES BETWEEN 30-50 PERCENT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE VALUES TO REBOUND AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN STARTING SATURDAY AND ON INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 88 68 84 / 0 0 10 40
ANNISTON 62 89 69 84 / 0 0 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 65 88 71 84 / 0 0 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 66 89 72 84 / 0 10 40 80
CALERA 63 90 70 86 / 0 0 20 50
AUBURN 64 88 70 86 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 64 91 71 87 / 0 0 10 40
TROY 62 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page