990
FXUS64 KBMX 060428
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING
SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR THE REGION TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN OUR FAR SW ZONES ON SATURDAY, BEFORE
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
WORK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN HERE, AS
GUIDANCE PAINTS ROUGHLY TWO SCENARIOS. THE FIRST IS THE TROUGH
TAKING AN ODD ELONGATED SHAPE, ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE RAINFALL
COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THIS TROUGH
GETS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST, WITH A RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD IN TO
OUR WEST. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STAY IN THE
FORECAST WITH THIS SCENARIO, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, RAIN LOOKS TO STAY IN THE FORECAST IN SOME CAPACITY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE 90 DEGREES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS, AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO LOSE CONTROL OVER
THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
12
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF
THAT, MINRH VALUES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 50% COME SUNDAY, AND
LINGER HERE OR HIGHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GIVEN DAILY
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 88 68 82 / 0 0 20 70
ANNISTON 62 88 69 82 / 0 0 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 65 88 71 83 / 0 0 30 80
TUSCALOOSA 66 89 72 84 / 0 10 40 90
CALERA 63 90 70 85 / 0 0 20 80
AUBURN 64 88 70 85 / 0 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 64 90 71 86 / 0 10 10 60
TROY 62 90 70 87 / 0 10 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...12
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