573
FXUS64 KBMX 061123
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING
SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR THE REGION TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN OUR FAR SW ZONES ON SATURDAY, BEFORE
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
WORK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN HERE, AS
GUIDANCE PAINTS ROUGHLY TWO SCENARIOS. THE FIRST IS THE TROUGH
TAKING AN ODD ELONGATED SHAPE, ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE RAINFALL
COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THIS TROUGH
GETS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST, WITH A RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD IN TO
OUR WEST. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STAY IN THE
FORECAST WITH THIS SCENARIO, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, RAIN LOOKS TO STAY IN THE FORECAST IN SOME CAPACITY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE 90 DEGREES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER TEXAS. WE ALREADY
HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE, AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT AS AN
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITES EXCEPT MGM/AUO BY 08-12Z WITH
A PROB30 INTRODUCED DURING THAT TIME AT TCL FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF
THAT, MINRH VALUES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 50% COME SUNDAY, AND
LINGER HERE OR HIGHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GIVEN DAILY
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 68 82 69 / 0 20 70 30
ANNISTON 88 69 82 70 / 0 10 60 20
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 83 71 / 0 30 80 30
TUSCALOOSA 89 72 84 72 / 10 40 90 40
CALERA 90 70 85 70 / 0 20 80 30
AUBURN 88 70 85 71 / 0 0 30 10
MONTGOMERY 90 71 86 71 / 10 10 60 10
TROY 90 70 87 71 / 10 10 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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