077
FXUS64 KBMX 061831
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
131 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING THIS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP THIS WEEK WITH READINGS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR THE REGION TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN OUR FAR SW ZONES ON SATURDAY, BEFORE
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
WORK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN HERE, AS
GUIDANCE PAINTS ROUGHLY TWO SCENARIOS. THE FIRST IS THE TROUGH
TAKING AN ODD ELONGATED SHAPE, ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE RAINFALL
COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THIS TROUGH
GETS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST, WITH A RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD IN TO
OUR WEST. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STAY IN THE
FORECAST WITH THIS SCENARIO, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, RAIN LOOKS TO STAY IN THE FORECAST IN SOME CAPACITY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE 90 DEGREES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO START THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD STAY GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT FROM ~7-13Z ALONG AND
AHEAD OF SHOWERS, WITH IFR CIGS A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND. THUNDER
PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE ZERO TONIGHT BUT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
08
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THAT, MINRH
VALUES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 50% BY SUNDAY, AND LINGER HERE OR
HIGHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GIVEN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 80 68 82 / 10 80 60 80
ANNISTON 70 80 69 81 / 20 60 60 80
BIRMINGHAM 70 80 70 82 / 20 90 60 70
TUSCALOOSA 72 82 72 84 / 50 90 50 60
CALERA 70 82 69 84 / 20 90 60 70
AUBURN 71 81 70 83 / 20 40 40 30
MONTGOMERY 72 83 70 85 / 20 80 30 30
TROY 70 84 70 86 / 20 60 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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