234
FXUS64 KBMX 062349
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING THIS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP THIS WEEK WITH READINGS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CENTER NOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ONSHORE FLOW
HAS RETURNED WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE UPWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION. WE TRANSITION TODAY INTO A WET
PATTERN WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR
MOST BY SUNDAY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SUNDAY INTERACTING MORE WITH THE MAIN UPPER WEST COAST
TROUGH RESULTING IN THE LOW OPENING UP. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL PROPAGATE PERIODICALLY AROUND A DEEP SOUTH AND GULF UPPER
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE GULF
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE OPENED LOW/UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY TUESDAY, THIS
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO A LARGER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
CANADA, SOUTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, FURTHER INTO EASTERN CONUS.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE DEEP SOUTH UPPER RIDGE WOULD RETROGRADE
BACK OVER TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RESULT FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA WOULD BE THE SHIFTING OF OUR MAIN PRECIPITATION
AXIS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BUT STILL WITH RAIN CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, GUIDANCE HAS THE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH WEAKENING UPPER FLOW/FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER BUT
STILL PRESENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
CHANCES AS WE FINISH THE EXTENDED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES PAST 07/09Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND THIS TIME, WITH SHRA INCREASING PAST
07/12Z. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY, WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE PAST 07/18Z, BUT CONFIDENCE HERE
WAS LOW, WITH ONLY PROB30 GROUPS INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THAT, MINRH
VALUES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 50% BY SUNDAY, AND LINGER HERE OR
HIGHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GIVEN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 80 68 82 / 10 80 60 80
ANNISTON 70 80 69 81 / 20 60 60 80
BIRMINGHAM 70 80 70 82 / 20 90 60 70
TUSCALOOSA 72 82 72 84 / 50 90 50 60
CALERA 70 82 69 84 / 20 90 60 70
AUBURN 71 81 70 83 / 20 40 40 30
MONTGOMERY 72 83 70 85 / 20 80 30 30
TROY 70 84 70 86 / 20 60 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/
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