195
FXUS64 KBMX 070347
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1047 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP THIS WEEK WITH READINGS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
NOTHING MAJOR HAS REALLY CHANGED REGARDING THE OVERALL THINKING
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION STARTING THIS MORNING,
GREATLY INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN OUR NW ZONES, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
BY TUESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR ALL OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY TREK INTO THE MIDWEST,
TRANSITIONING INTO A DEEPER TROUGH. FROM HERE, GUIDANCE IS STILL
SPLIT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WEAK TROUGH. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE TROUGH LINGERING JUST TO OUR EAST, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES IN OUR EAST ZONES INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHER
GUIDANCE QUICKLY BUILDS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS, PUSHING
THE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST, BUT LIMIT IT TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SCATTERED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS INVOLVE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST, RESULTING IN A STEADY CLIMB IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEW WORKWEEK. BY FRIDAY, MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-90S, WITH LOW-
90S EXPECTED INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES PAST 07/09Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND THIS TIME, WITH SHRA INCREASING PAST
07/12Z. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY, WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE PAST 07/18Z, BUT CONFIDENCE HERE
WAS LOW, WITH ONLY PROB30 GROUPS INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THAT, MINRH
VALUES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 50% BY SUNDAY, AND LINGER HERE OR
HIGHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GIVEN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 80 69 82 / 20 90 60 80
ANNISTON 70 80 69 81 / 20 80 60 80
BIRMINGHAM 70 80 70 82 / 30 90 50 60
TUSCALOOSA 72 83 72 84 / 50 90 40 50
CALERA 70 82 70 84 / 40 90 50 60
AUBURN 71 82 70 83 / 10 50 30 40
MONTGOMERY 72 83 70 85 / 20 80 30 40
TROY 70 84 70 86 / 20 70 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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