081
FXUS64 KBMX 071847
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
147 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP THIS WEEK STARTING TUESDAY
WITH READINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
NOTHING MAJOR HAS REALLY CHANGED REGARDING THE OVERALL THINKING
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION STARTING THIS MORNING,
GREATLY INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN OUR NW ZONES, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
BY TUESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR ALL OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY TREK INTO THE MIDWEST,
TRANSITIONING INTO A DEEPER TROUGH. FROM HERE, GUIDANCE IS STILL
SPLIT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WEAK TROUGH. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE TROUGH LINGERING JUST TO OUR EAST, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES IN OUR EAST ZONES INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHER
GUIDANCE QUICKLY BUILDS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS, PUSHING
THE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST, BUT LIMIT IT TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SCATTERED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS INVOLVE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST, RESULTING IN A STEADY CLIMB IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEW WORKWEEK. BY FRIDAY, MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-90S, WITH LOW-
90S EXPECTED INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
CIGS ARE MVFR TO VFR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SITES CURRENTLY WITH
AREAS OF SHRA SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
ISOLATED TS AREAS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND AN OVERALL
WET PATTERN. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS SHIFTS SOME TO
THE NORTH. REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE NOTED AT TIMES WITH THE RAIN.
08
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. BECAUSE OF THAT, MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 50% OR HIGHER AS WELL THIS WEEK. GIVEN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 81 68 85 / 60 70 40 60
ANNISTON 70 80 68 84 / 50 70 40 70
BIRMINGHAM 70 82 69 87 / 50 60 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 72 84 71 89 / 50 50 20 20
CALERA 70 84 68 89 / 50 50 20 40
AUBURN 70 83 70 86 / 30 30 30 40
MONTGOMERY 71 85 71 89 / 40 30 10 20
TROY 70 86 71 89 / 30 20 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page