644
FXUS64 KBMX 072329
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP THIS WEEK STARTING TUESDAY
WITH READINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE WITH ONLY WEAK
SOUTHEAST US RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND INTO ALABAMA WITH A CLOUD FILLED SATELLITE
PICTURE. THE RADAR IS INDICATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE UPWARD
THROUGH NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION STARTING
TUESDAY. THE CURRENT WET PATTERN WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE UPPER LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN WRITING
ABOUT RECENTLY HAS OPENED UP AND IS NOW SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE GENERAL FLOW AND ALSO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO A TROUGH
TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM, SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL PROPAGATE PERIODICALLY AROUND A
DEEP SOUTH AND GULF UPPER RIDGE BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BUILDING
TROUGH. BY TUESDAY, THIS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO A
LARGER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY NOT PROGRESSING THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE DEEP SOUTH UPPER RIDGE WOULD RETROGRADE BACK OVER TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RESULT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WOULD
BE THE SHIFTING OF OUR MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
BUT STILL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FAR EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FRONT TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH THE ZONAL FLOW SET UP FROM LATE WEEK
FLAT UPPER RIDGING, THERE WILL NOT BE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FOR
SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ONGOING THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING, WITH ALL TERMINALS CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA OR
SHRA. LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS PAST 08/06Z, WITH GENERAL
CLEARING EXPECTED PAST 08/15Z. GIVEN A LINGERING SHORTWAVE,
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH
MOST TERMINALS CARRYING ADDITIONAL PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA PAST
08/18Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. BECAUSE OF THAT, MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 50% OR HIGHER AS WELL THIS WEEK. GIVEN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 81 68 85 / 60 70 40 60
ANNISTON 70 80 68 84 / 50 70 40 70
BIRMINGHAM 70 82 69 87 / 50 60 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 72 84 71 89 / 50 50 20 20
CALERA 70 84 68 89 / 50 50 20 40
AUBURN 70 83 70 86 / 30 30 30 40
MONTGOMERY 71 85 71 89 / 40 30 10 20
TROY 70 86 71 89 / 30 20 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/
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