893
FXUS64 KBMX 221229
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
729 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
AND ISOLATED, BRIEF TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- FLOOD THREAT: A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS MOVE ACROSS LOCATIONS WHERE SOIL
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.
- ACTIVE PATTERN: THE CURRENT WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, RESULTING IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CUTTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ONE OF THE FORCES
BEHIND OUR NEXT THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CAN BE ANALYZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH, EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF WE TAKE
A LOOK OUT TO OUR WEST, A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP BACK ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. WITH
THAT SAID, OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW
FROM ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE DAY AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO BE LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION. CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING
JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WITH THAT SAID, GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SRH (200-300 M2/S2) DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WILL POSE A BRIEF THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS, EVEN NON-SEVERE WINDS COULD
RESULT IN DOWNED TREES; REMAIN WEATHER AWARE ON MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT, WE WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AT A DECENT RATE SO THAT
SHOULD HELP LIMIT OUR FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER, A FULLY SATURATED
PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN RATES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, LEADING TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
ESTABLISH CONTROL TO THE WEST, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS REGIME,
MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO LOWER AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL. OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
IFR STRATUS IS PREVAILING ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHRA AND
TSRA CHANCES TO MOST TERMINALS LATE TODAY THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT. THROUGH 18Z TODAY, CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR CATEGORY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY. PREVAILING WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON AT
TCL, BHM, AND EET THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AT
MGM AND AUO. TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PICTURE
BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z FOR TCL, BHM, AND EET, POTENTIALLY LINGERING
A BIT LONGER AS LATE AS 03Z. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TERMINALS
BEING AFFECTED, WENT WITH TEMPO TSRA FOR THESE TERMINALS, WHILE
LEAVING PROB30S IN AT MGM AND AUO WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD STORMS REACHING INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DURING THE
EVENING, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 70 85 65 / 80 80 20 10
ANNISTON 87 71 84 67 / 60 80 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 71 85 69 / 70 80 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 88 72 86 70 / 60 70 40 20
CALERA 90 71 88 69 / 50 70 40 10
AUBURN 88 72 86 70 / 20 50 30 10
MONTGOMERY 90 73 87 71 / 20 50 40 20
TROY 90 73 88 70 / 20 40 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...56/GDG
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