072
FXUS64 KBMX 230256
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
956 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
- ACTIVE PATTERN: THE CURRENT WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, RESULTING IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN A BIT UNORGANIZED AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO HINT AT THESE STORMS BECOMING
MORE ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRIMARILY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF US LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT BY MIDWEEK. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OUT TO OUR WEST WILL LEAVE US IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS FLOW
WHICH WILL HELP IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO LOWER AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKES CONTROL. WITH THAT SAID, PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR LOW CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION DAILY. OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST EVOLVES. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTIONS OF TEMPOS AND PROB30S FOR
TSRA THIS EVENING. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS HAD A TOUGH
TIME WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY. BREEZY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS MVFR CEILINGS RETURN. VFR RETURNS BY MIDDAY AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 85 64 86 / 90 10 10 10
ANNISTON 70 84 66 86 / 90 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 70 85 68 88 / 90 10 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 71 86 70 88 / 90 20 10 50
CALERA 71 88 68 90 / 90 20 10 40
AUBURN 72 87 69 88 / 80 20 10 10
MONTGOMERY 72 87 70 88 / 80 20 10 40
TROY 72 87 70 88 / 70 40 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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