821
FXUS64 KBMX 230531
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
- ACTIVE PATTERN: THE CURRENT WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, RESULTING IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN A BIT UNORGANIZED AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO HINT AT THESE STORMS BECOMING
MORE ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRIMARILY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF US LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT BY MIDWEEK. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OUT TO OUR WEST WILL LEAVE US IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS FLOW
WHICH WILL HELP IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO LOWER AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKES CONTROL. WITH THAT SAID, PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR LOW CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION DAILY. OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AUO/MGM, RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS, REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTH, CLEAR OF ANY TERMINALS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. GOES MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE IN FOR ALL SITES AS THIS CLOUD DECK PUSHES
SOUTH. VFR RETURNS BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL. WINDS BECOME LIGHT BY
00Z WEDNESDAY.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 81 60 85 65 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 81 61 85 66 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 82 63 86 68 / 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 85 65 86 69 / 0 0 30 20
CALERA 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 10 20
AUBURN 85 65 86 68 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 86 65 86 68 / 10 0 10 20
TROY 86 65 87 67 / 10 0 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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