936
FXUS64 KBMX 240239
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
939 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK; HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES DAILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
POSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
- THUNDERSTORM THREAT: A COMPLEX OF STORMS OR A DECAYING MCS MAY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
LOOKING OUT TO OUR WEST, ANOTHER MCS IS RIDING ALONG THE FRONT,
MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE MAKING IT TO ALABAMA. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS SYSTEM SENDS INTO OUR AREA. ANOTHER H5
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
OUR WEST, MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A MOIST
AIRMASS, ALLOWING FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC
MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION.
BY THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES CONTROL, BRINGING DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES FROM 100-105 DEGREES. THIS WILL POSE
A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE OPTED TO INTRODUCE
A PROB30 FOR TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES FROM 20Z-00Z
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE LATEST CAMS
STRUGGLE WITH HOW MUCH OF A MCS TO OUR WEST MAKES IT OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN
IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 85 66 88 / 0 10 20 20
ANNISTON 61 85 67 88 / 0 0 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 63 86 69 88 / 0 20 30 30
TUSCALOOSA 65 86 70 89 / 0 50 50 40
CALERA 63 89 68 90 / 0 30 40 30
AUBURN 65 87 69 87 / 0 0 20 20
MONTGOMERY 65 87 69 88 / 0 30 40 30
TROY 64 88 68 88 / 0 10 40 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page