090
FXUS64 KBMX 241115
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THUNDERSTORM THREAT: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK; HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES DAILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
POSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
LOOKING OUT TO OUR WEST, ANOTHER MCS IS RIDING ALONG THE FRONT,
MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE MAKING IT TO ALABAMA. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS SYSTEM SENDS INTO OUR AREA. ANOTHER H5
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
OUR WEST, MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A MOIST
AIRMASS, ALLOWING FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC
MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION.
BY THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES CONTROL, BRINGING DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES FROM 100-105 DEGREES. THIS WILL POSE
A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SATELLITE REVEALS AREAS OF RIVER FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT MGM AND TCL THROUGH ~14Z. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME VFR CLOUDS PREVAIL TODAY, BUT... A COMPACT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM MISSISSIPPI SHOULD SPAWN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF ALABAMA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE
TRACK AND BREADTH OF THIS ACTIVITY, SO HAVE CONTINUED PROB30
PENDING RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
TONIGHT.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES. EET METARS ARE NOT MAKING IT OUT TO THE
WORLD BUT ARE VIEWABLE FROM IN-OFFICE AT NWS BIRMINGHAM, SO WILL
CONTINUE THEIR TAF AS NORMAL.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN
IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 86 66 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 86 67 88 70 / 10 10 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 86 69 89 72 / 20 10 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 86 69 89 72 / 30 20 30 10
CALERA 89 68 91 71 / 20 20 20 10
AUBURN 87 69 87 71 / 10 20 10 10
MONTGOMERY 87 69 88 71 / 10 30 30 10
TROY 88 68 87 70 / 10 30 50 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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