519
FXUS64 KBMX 241751
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THUNDERSTORM THREAT: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK; HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES DAILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
POSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AN MCV IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER SUMTER
COUNTY. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE, AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, REMAINS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND IS ON COURSE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
RISK SEEMS VERY LOW. A SECOND MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PATTERN WILL
TREND MUCH DRIER AND HOTTER. HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME A CONCERN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY INCREASE. IF THE FORECAST STAYS ON THIS
PATH, WE WILL LIKELY BE TALKING MORE ABOUT A HEAT ADVISORY SOON.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS AN MCV
ROTATING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A REGION OF MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR TCL/MGM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR EET AND BHM. A
PROB30 WAS INCLUDED FOR SHRA AT MGM AND AUO AT THE END OF THIS
PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTRIBUTES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW MORNING.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS MOVE IN BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 89 70 90 / 0 20 10 30
ANNISTON 66 88 70 89 / 0 20 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 68 88 71 91 / 10 30 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 69 88 72 91 / 30 30 10 10
CALERA 67 90 70 93 / 20 30 10 20
AUBURN 69 86 71 88 / 20 40 20 50
MONTGOMERY 69 86 71 90 / 30 40 10 30
TROY 68 84 70 89 / 30 50 30 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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