159
FXUS64 KBMX 250501
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK; HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES DAILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
POSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE PRESENT DUE TO A DETERIORATING SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT AND
ENHANCE CONDITIONS WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AFTER FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE US INCLUDING TEXAS, THE
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, THE DETERIORATING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE. ANY
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH,
AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY INDUCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP UP AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF JUNE WITH OVERALL HEAT
STRESS BECOMING A CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY NEXT WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
FOR SHRA AT MGM AND AUO TONIGHT, BUT ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
FOR MGM TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FOR ALL DURING THE DAY
(ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH HEATING. A FEW TSRA MAY BE
NOTED AFTER 21Z. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 9Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FOR THE
W/S TAFS. A MENTION IS NOTED FOR TCL, MGM, AND AUO AT VARYING
TIMES.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN
IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 45% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 89 69 90 / 0 20 10 30
ANNISTON 66 88 70 89 / 10 20 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 68 88 71 91 / 10 20 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 69 88 72 91 / 10 20 20 20
CALERA 67 90 70 93 / 10 20 20 20
AUBURN 69 84 70 88 / 10 40 20 40
MONTGOMERY 69 86 71 91 / 20 30 20 30
TROY 68 85 70 90 / 30 50 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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