206
FXUS64 KBMX 250546
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK; HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES DAILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
POSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE PRESENT DUE TO A DETERIORATING SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT AND
ENHANCE CONDITIONS WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AFTER FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE US INCLUDING TEXAS, THE
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, THE DETERIORATING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE. ANY
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH,
AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY INDUCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP UP AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF JUNE WITH OVERALL HEAT
STRESS BECOMING A CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY NEXT WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
INSTANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL AFFECT SOME CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST AT TCL AND MGM, LOWER AT EET AND AUO THOUGH INCLUDED IN
THE TAF. AFTERWARDS, VFR CONDITIONS FEATURING LIGHT WINDS AND
VARIABLE CLOUDS PREVAIL; HOWEVER, IMPACTS FROM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR FROM AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING,
CURRENTLY REFLECTED AS PROB30.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN
IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 45% THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 69 90 73 / 20 10 30 10
ANNISTON 88 70 89 74 / 20 10 40 0
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 91 75 / 20 20 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 88 72 91 75 / 20 20 20 0
CALERA 90 70 93 74 / 20 20 20 0
AUBURN 84 70 88 73 / 40 20 40 0
MONTGOMERY 86 71 91 73 / 30 20 30 0
TROY 85 70 90 72 / 50 20 40 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page