608
FXUS64 KBMX 260510
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES DAILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL POSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
PRESENT DUE TO A DETERIORATING SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT AND ENHANCE
CONDITIONS WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AFTER FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME OVER THIS WEEKEND, A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE US INCLUDING TEXAS, THE
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, THE DETERIORATING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE. ANY
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH, AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
AN UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN ZERO RAIN CHANCES. THAT
DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. IN THIS CASE, SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE RIDGE. WITH HOT
AFTERNOON SUMMER TEMPERATURES, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED, BUT NOT NECESSARILY ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP UPWARD AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF JUNE INTO EARLY JULY
WITH OVERALL HEAT STRESS BECOMING A CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TRENDS ARE
LEANING TO A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMING NECESSARY BY MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION THAT IS LINGERING. I HAVE A MENTION THROUGH 3Z
FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR ALL SITES BUT BHM/AUO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 9Z.
I WILL ONLY INCLUDE A MENTION AT AUO AT THIS TIME, AS CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ON FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO PINPOINT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCLUDE JUST YET.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR SOME THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT CONDITIONS GENERALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HEAT INDICES APPROACH AND TOP 100 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 73 91 73 / 10 20 20 10
ANNISTON 89 74 90 74 / 10 20 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 92 75 92 75 / 20 20 0 0
CALERA 93 74 94 74 / 20 20 10 0
AUBURN 88 73 90 74 / 20 20 10 0
MONTGOMERY 91 74 92 74 / 20 20 10 0
TROY 90 72 92 73 / 30 20 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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