446
FXUS64 KBMX 261825
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
125 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES DAILY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL POSE A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
PRESENT DUE TO A DETERIORATING SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT AND ENHANCE
CONDITIONS WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AFTER FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME OVER THIS WEEKEND, A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE US INCLUDING TEXAS, THE
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, THE DETERIORATING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE. ANY
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH, AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
AN UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN ZERO RAIN CHANCES. THAT
DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. IN THIS CASE, SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE RIDGE. WITH HOT
AFTERNOON SUMMER TEMPERATURES, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED, BUT NOT NECESSARILY ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP UPWARD AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF JUNE INTO EARLY JULY
WITH OVERALL HEAT STRESS BECOMING A CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TRENDS ARE
LEANING TO A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMING NECESSARY BY MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
ONGOING NEAR MGM AND AUO, BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TSRA
FOR THOSE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF BEING
AFFECTED. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE WITH PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR SOME THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT CONDITIONS GENERALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HEAT INDICES APPROACH AND TOP 100 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 92 73 93 / 0 20 20 10
ANNISTON 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 92 75 94 / 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 75 92 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 75 94 74 96 / 10 0 10 10
AUBURN 73 90 74 91 / 20 20 10 10
MONTGOMERY 74 92 74 92 / 20 20 0 10
TROY 73 92 73 93 / 20 20 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...56/GDG
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