703
FXUS64 KBMX 270502
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND, AND RISE WELL ABOVE 100
DEGREES FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL POSE A MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED OVER MULTIPLE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
PRESENT NOW THAT THE PREVIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS OUT OF THE
PICTURE. AT PRESENT WE HAVE UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND A
BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY SUNDAY THIS FLAT RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF
THE US INCLUDING TEXAS, THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. ANY FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH, AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHILE
RIDGING WILL MEAN SUBSIDENCE FOR MANY, IT DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN
RAINFREE. BY TUESDAY, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY AROUND THE LARGE EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE.
THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OUR DIURNAL CONVECTION
CHANCES AS IT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS A
RESULT, LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH HEATING FOR
THE EAST/SOUTH AREAS FOR MID WEEK TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
AREAS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR OUR WARMING
TREND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES CREEPING
UPWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
OVERALL HEAT STRESS BECOMING A GROWING CONCERN. CURRENT TRENDS
ARE LEANING TO A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MONDAY AND
ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL SITES THANKS TO RIDGING. THERE ARE ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION, BUT THESE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO PINPOINT AT ANY
SPECIFIC LOCALE TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE, OFF AND ON HIGH CIRRUS
WILL BE NOTED AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MIXING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY BETTER DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF LUCKY
AREAS OF RAIN, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEAT INDICES APPROACH AND TOP
100 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 74 93 74 / 20 20 20 0
ANNISTON 91 74 91 74 / 20 20 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 92 75 93 75 / 10 20 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 92 75 94 74 / 10 20 0 0
CALERA 94 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
AUBURN 90 73 90 75 / 20 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 92 74 92 74 / 20 0 10 0
TROY 92 73 92 74 / 20 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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