225
FXUS64 KBMX 280523
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 OR JUST ABOVE FOR SUNDAY,
RISING TO 105 DEGREES OR GREATER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAT RISK WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
EVEN MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO BE A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF COAST. AT PRESENT WE HAVE UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH
AND A BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. DURING SUNDAY
THIS FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDSECTION OF THE US INCLUDING TEXAS, THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ANY FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH, AND SURFACE RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE RIDGING WILL MEAN SUBSIDENCE FOR MANY, IT
DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN RAINFREE. BY TUESDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY AROUND THE LARGE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR OUR, MINIMAL BUT STILL PRESENT, DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS
IT PROPAGATES AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, IS TRENDING LESS LIKELIHOOD AND QPF WITH IT.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR OUR WARMING TREND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FORECAST TEMPERATURES CREEPING UPWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK
WITH OVERALL HEAT STRESS BECOMING A GROWING CONCERN. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE LEANING TO A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMING NECESSARY FOR
MONDAY AND ONWARD.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL SITES, WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AND ONLY FAIR-WEATHER
CUMULUS/CIRRUS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS WITH MIXING
AFTER 15Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN, THE PRIMARY STORY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 94 74 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 93 74 95 76 / 0 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 94 75 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 94 75 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 97 74 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 92 74 94 77 / 0 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 93 74 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 94 74 95 76 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...16
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