848
FXUS64 KBMX 281730
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED HEAT RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY THROUGH 9 PM TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
EVEN MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO BE A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF COAST. AT PRESENT WE HAVE UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH
AND A BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. DURING SUNDAY
THIS FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDSECTION OF THE US INCLUDING TEXAS, THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ANY FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH, AND SURFACE RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE RIDGING WILL MEAN SUBSIDENCE FOR MANY, IT
DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN RAINFREE. BY TUESDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY AROUND THE LARGE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR OUR, MINIMAL BUT STILL PRESENT, DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS
IT PROPAGATES AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, IS TRENDING LESS LIKELIHOOD AND QPF WITH IT.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR OUR WARMING TREND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FORECAST TEMPERATURES CREEPING UPWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK
WITH OVERALL HEAT STRESS BECOMING A GROWING CONCERN. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE LEANING TO A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMING NECESSARY FOR
MONDAY AND ONWARD.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
NO BIG SURPRISES FORECAST IN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH EITHER SCATTERED CU OR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS INDICATE
A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE PRETTY TRANSIENT AT ANY
LOCATION THAT IT OCCURS, AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED POCKETS OF
RAIN, THE PRIMARY STORY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 30
ANNISTON 74 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 40
BIRMINGHAM 75 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 30
TUSCALOOSA 75 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 20
CALERA 74 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 30
AUBURN 74 95 77 93 / 0 0 10 50
MONTGOMERY 74 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 50
TROY 74 95 76 94 / 0 0 10 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../61/
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