034
FXUS64 KBMX 281846
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
146 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED HEAT RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY THROUGH 9 PM TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE BIG STORY OVER THE COMING WEEKS IS OBVIOUSLY THE HEAT. THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER A BIG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE
WEEK, TO THE OHIO VALLEY MID-WEEK, TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
WE'LL INITIALLY START THE WEEK OFF QUITE HOT AND HUMID WITH CENTER
OF THE RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE, AND CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS AS
WELL. WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY TO COVER THE ELEVATED HEAT
RISK DURING THIS PERIOD. WE'LL ALSO NOTE THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY "COOL" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHICH
MEANS THERE IS DECREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES IN NON-AIR-
CONDITIONED BUILDINGS TO RECOVER FROM THE DAY'S HEAT.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST,
SEVERAL EASTERLY WAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW POPS TO RETURN TO OUR FORECAST. CURRENT
POPS ARE IN THE 20 PERCENT OR LESS RANGE, BUT I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF POPS EVENTUALLY INCH BACK UP TO MORE CLIMO-LIKE
VALUES (TYPICALLY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE). FINALLY, DATA DOES
SHOW THAT THERE IS A SUBTLE, BUT DISCERNIBLE, PEAK IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM REPORTS IN OUR AREA IN EARLY TO MID JULY, SO WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS ON OUR MINDS AS WELL.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
NO BIG SURPRISES FORECAST IN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH EITHER SCATTERED CU OR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS INDICATE
A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE PRETTY TRANSIENT AT ANY
LOCATION THAT IT OCCURS, AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN, THE PRIMARY STORY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 30
ANNISTON 74 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 40
BIRMINGHAM 75 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 30
TUSCALOOSA 75 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 20
CALERA 74 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 30
AUBURN 74 95 77 93 / 0 0 10 50
MONTGOMERY 74 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 50
TROY 74 95 76 94 / 0 0 10 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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