686
FXUS64 KBMX 132323
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE,
MAINTAINING A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. IT IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE LOW SHOULD
SLIDE MORE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION BY THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES REGARDING THE RIDGE'S EVOLUTION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. SOME LONG-RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID-
90S. ALTERNATIVELY, OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED BY
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. REGARDLESS, THE
OUTCOME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF
HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO WANE, WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCED CIGS
MOVING IN PAST 14/06Z. HERE, IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
14/15Z, WITH GRADUAL MIXING ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONCE MORE, WITH ALL TERMINALS CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TSRA PAST 14/20Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION, PRECLUDING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 83 69 86 / 60 80 40 70
ANNISTON 70 83 70 86 / 70 80 50 70
BIRMINGHAM 70 83 70 87 / 70 80 50 60
TUSCALOOSA 71 83 70 87 / 70 80 60 60
CALERA 70 84 70 89 / 70 80 60 60
AUBURN 71 83 71 86 / 60 80 60 50
MONTGOMERY 70 85 70 88 / 50 80 60 50
TROY 69 84 69 88 / 40 80 50 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../44/
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