786
FXUS64 KBMX 140448
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SPINNING ACROSS THE REGION, AS
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE WEST. THIS
MOVEMENT SHOULD SPEED UP INTO WEDNESDAY, AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE EAST COAST. AS SUCH, ORGANIZED
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION
BY THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS SPLIT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS STARTING TO BE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST.
WHILE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL STILL BE ON THE
RISE, THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S
AND LOW-90S. THIS COMPARED TO THE MID-90S IF THE RIDGE WERE ABLE
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF INSTEAD. THIS TROUGH WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
COMPARED TO SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
REGARDLESS, LOOK FOR THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST IN SOME CAPACITY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO WANE, WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCED CIGS
MOVING IN PAST 14/06Z. HERE, IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
14/15Z, WITH GRADUAL MIXING ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONCE MORE, WITH ALL TERMINALS CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TSRA PAST 14/20Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION, PRECLUDING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 84 69 87 / 70 80 40 70
ANNISTON 70 83 70 86 / 60 80 40 70
BIRMINGHAM 70 83 70 86 / 70 80 40 60
TUSCALOOSA 71 83 70 87 / 70 90 50 60
CALERA 70 84 70 88 / 80 90 50 50
AUBURN 71 83 71 86 / 60 70 50 40
MONTGOMERY 70 85 70 88 / 60 80 50 40
TROY 69 85 68 88 / 50 70 30 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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