561
FXUS64 KBMX 142348
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A RATHER DREARY START TO THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL SEE AN
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WE DESTABILIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH ACTIVITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
OUR PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO
OUR WEST AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
QUESTION OVER THE WEEKEND. SIGNS POINT TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH WHILE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. FOR NOW, WE WILL
CARRY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WEEKEND’S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE A MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DAILY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE AND TROUGH. IF THE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL, HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S, INTRODUCING A MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, TEMPS WOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
IF THE TROUGH WINS THE BATTLE. REGARDLESS, WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SUMMER.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THUNDER CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH THUNDER PROBABILITIES REMOVED FROM FM GROUPS BY 15/02Z.
HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ALL
TERMINALS SEEING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PAST 15/06Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD SLOWLY MIX, WITH SKIES RETURNING TO VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
15/16-18Z AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE BEST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. HERE, PROB30 GROUPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED PAST 15/20Z FOR TSRA.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION, PRECLUDING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 87 70 88 / 40 50 20 50
ANNISTON 70 86 70 87 / 40 50 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 70 87 71 88 / 40 50 20 40
TUSCALOOSA 70 86 71 89 / 40 40 20 30
CALERA 70 89 71 91 / 30 40 10 30
AUBURN 71 86 72 88 / 40 30 20 30
MONTGOMERY 70 89 71 90 / 30 20 10 20
TROY 68 88 70 90 / 30 20 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION.../44/
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