523
FXUS64 KBMX 150431
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST, WITH
ONE MORE DAY OF ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
ONCE THIS LOW FULLY EXITS THE REGION BY THURSDAY, MOST OF THE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, THERE ARE SOME MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) ON THURSDAY
NORTH OF I-20, AS A LINGERING 700MB BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH
MAY PUSH MORE ORGANIZED STUFF SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT MOST PEOPLE
CAN EXPECT HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO FRIDAY, AS A
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OFF OF THE EAST COAST. THANKFULLY, IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S AND LOW-90S.
THE BAD NEWS IS, THIS SUPPRESSION WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN TURN,
AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD CLIMB ONCE MORE, REACHING THE MID-90S IN
MANY LOCATIONS BY THIS TIME NEXT TUESDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THUNDER CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH THUNDER PROBABILITIES REMOVED FROM FM GROUPS BY 15/02Z.
HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ALL
TERMINALS SEEING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PAST 15/06Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD SLOWLY MIX, WITH SKIES RETURNING TO VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
15/16-18Z AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE BEST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. HERE, PROB30 GROUPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED PAST 15/20Z FOR TSRA.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION, PRECLUDING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 87 70 88 / 30 40 20 50
ANNISTON 70 86 71 88 / 30 40 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 70 87 72 89 / 30 40 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 70 86 71 90 / 40 40 20 10
CALERA 70 89 71 92 / 40 40 20 30
AUBURN 71 87 72 88 / 40 20 10 20
MONTGOMERY 70 89 71 91 / 40 20 20 10
TROY 68 88 70 90 / 40 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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