228
FXUS64 KBMX 150525
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1225 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST, WITH
ONE MORE DAY OF ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
ONCE THIS LOW FULLY EXITS THE REGION BY THURSDAY, MOST OF THE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, THERE ARE SOME MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) ON THURSDAY
NORTH OF I-20, AS A LINGERING 700MB BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH
MAY PUSH MORE ORGANIZED STUFF SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT MOST PEOPLE
CAN EXPECT HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO FRIDAY, AS A
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OFF OF THE EAST COAST. THANKFULLY, IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S AND LOW-90S.
THE BAD NEWS IS, THIS SUPPRESSION WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN TURN,
AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD CLIMB ONCE MORE, REACHING THE MID-90S IN
MANY LOCATIONS BY THIS TIME NEXT TUESDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CIGS AT SOME TERMINALS ARE ALREADY FALLING TO IFR
OR LIFR, WITH OTHER TERMINALS LIKELY TO FOLLOW SUIT. CIGS SHOULD
STAY AT IFR THROUGH 14-15Z. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO HANG ON UNTIL
MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
PROB30 FOR TSRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
FOR BHM, TCL, AND EET.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
12
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION, PRECLUDING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 70 88 71 / 40 20 50 10
ANNISTON 86 71 88 72 / 40 10 40 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 72 89 73 / 40 20 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 86 71 90 73 / 40 20 10 0
CALERA 89 71 92 73 / 40 20 30 0
AUBURN 87 72 88 74 / 20 10 20 0
MONTGOMERY 89 71 91 73 / 20 20 10 0
TROY 88 70 90 72 / 10 10 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...12
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