040
FXUS64 KBMX 151757
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEK,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TENNESSEE. AT THE
SURFACE, A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE ANALYZED DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONCE AGAIN WE
STARTED OFF THE DAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. WE
WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE DESTABILIZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH ACTIVITY WANING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THAT SAID, SEVERAL H85-H7 IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AT
TIMES, GENERALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE IS NOW
HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DAILY. OVER THE WEEKEND, WE ADD ON A
FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 DEGREES AND A MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR CEILINGS WERE SLOW TO RETURN WITH MOST SITES JUST NOW LIFTING
OUT OF VFR. WITH THAT SAID, BHM REMAINS MVFR BUT SHOULD LIFT
SHORTLY. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION. CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR BHM/EET/TCL AND
INTRODUCED A PROB30 AT AUO/MGM TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN 3 TERMINALS. OPTED TO TRANSITION TO A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR BASED ON THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES. WINDS THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLING WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND
5-10 KNOTS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION, PRECLUDING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 88 71 90 / 20 40 10 50
ANNISTON 71 88 72 89 / 20 30 10 50
BIRMINGHAM 72 89 73 91 / 20 20 10 50
TUSCALOOSA 71 90 73 92 / 20 10 10 20
CALERA 71 91 72 93 / 30 10 10 50
AUBURN 72 88 73 90 / 20 20 10 50
MONTGOMERY 71 91 73 92 / 10 10 10 30
TROY 70 90 72 91 / 10 10 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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