467
FXUS64 KBMX 160345
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1045 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEK,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION TODAY, TRANSITIONING
OUR RAIN CHANCES BACK TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THANKFULLY, IT STILL APPEARS AS IF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST, KEEPING THE
SCOPE OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED. HIGHS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER-80S AND LOW-90S.
AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT REGARDING THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
IS SOMEWHAT TROPICAL IN NATURE, AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
FORM IN GEORGIA, BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF. A FEW
MEMBERS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE TURNING
TROPICAL, BEFORE IT QUICKLY BECOMES ABSORBED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. FOR US, THIS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER RAINFALL COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING AFTERNOON
HIGHS EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED.
UNFORTUNATELY, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, AS A STOUT RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO SHIFT
EAST. BY TUESDAY, MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THEIR
HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID-90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
STARTING TO REACH 105 DEGREES.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH ALL TERMINALS SETTLING INTO VFR CATEGORY
BY 16/02Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE PAST 16/10Z, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE IT AT KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH HERE TO
CARRY A PROB30 GROUP AT KBHM FOR TSRA
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CLIP VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY AIR AND RECENT
RAINFALLS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 89 72 90 / 10 30 10 50
ANNISTON 71 88 72 89 / 10 20 10 50
BIRMINGHAM 72 90 73 91 / 20 10 10 50
TUSCALOOSA 71 91 74 92 / 20 10 10 20
CALERA 71 92 73 93 / 20 10 10 40
AUBURN 72 89 74 90 / 20 20 20 50
MONTGOMERY 71 91 74 92 / 20 10 10 40
TROY 70 90 73 91 / 20 10 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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