622
FXUS64 KBMX 160520
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEK,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION TODAY, TRANSITIONING
OUR RAIN CHANCES BACK TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THANKFULLY, IT STILL APPEARS AS IF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST, KEEPING THE
SCOPE OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED. HIGHS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER-80S AND LOW-90S.
AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT REGARDING THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
IS SOMEWHAT TROPICAL IN NATURE, AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
FORM IN GEORGIA, BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF. A FEW
MEMBERS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE TURNING
TROPICAL, BEFORE IT QUICKLY BECOMES ABSORBED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. FOR US, THIS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER RAINFALL COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING AFTERNOON
HIGHS EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED.
UNFORTUNATELY, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, AS A STOUT RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO SHIFT
EAST. BY TUESDAY, MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THEIR
HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID-90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
STARTING TO REACH 105 DEGREES.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN DECREASING IN THE
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING FOR EET, TCL, AND BHM. HOWEVER,
DID MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR MVFR FROM 9-13Z. SIMILARLY, CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO DECREASING IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PROB30 IN AT BHM FOR NOW BUT
REMOVED TSRA AND REPLACED WITH SHRA. AS MENTIONED A FEW LINES AGO,
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BY AND LARGE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
12
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CLIP VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY AIR AND RECENT
RAINFALLS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 72 90 72 / 30 10 50 10
ANNISTON 88 72 89 72 / 20 10 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 90 73 91 74 / 10 10 50 10
TUSCALOOSA 91 74 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
CALERA 92 73 93 73 / 10 10 40 10
AUBURN 89 74 90 74 / 20 20 50 10
MONTGOMERY 91 74 92 74 / 10 10 40 20
TROY 90 73 91 73 / 10 20 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...12
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