364
FXUS64 KBMX 161704
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
TODAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES MORE ISOLATED TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND IS STILL SHOWING LOW CHANCES (<20%) OF DEVELOPMENT. AT THE
LEAST, THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF CENTRAL AL EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD AND COULD BUILD INTO CENTRAL AL AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WOULD LEAD LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND A
WARMING TREND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING INTO THE 100-105 RANGE. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE OVERDONE A
BIT IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. WE'LL KEEP HEAT IMPACTS AS A
MESSAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND
INTO THE MID 90S AS THEY ARE NOW, WE COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DAYTIME MIXING
COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. WE'LL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW GUSTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD (16-18Z), BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN'T THERE YET TO INCLUDE AS PREVAILING, SO I'LL LEAVE MENTION
OF GUSTS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 90 72 91 / 0 40 10 60
ANNISTON 72 90 72 90 / 10 40 10 50
BIRMINGHAM 74 91 74 93 / 10 40 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 74 92 74 93 / 10 20 30 20
CALERA 73 94 73 95 / 10 40 20 30
AUBURN 74 90 74 90 / 10 30 10 50
MONTGOMERY 74 92 74 93 / 10 30 20 40
TROY 73 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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