029
FXUS64 KBMX 162303
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
TODAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES MORE ISOLATED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND IS STILL SHOWING LOW CHANCES (<20%) OF DEVELOPMENT.
AT THE LEAST, THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD AND COULD BUILD INTO CENTRAL AL AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND A
WARMING TREND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING INTO THE 100-105 RANGE. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE OVERDONE A
BIT IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. WE'LL KEEP HEAT IMPACTS AS A
MESSAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND
INTO THE MID 90S AS THEY ARE NOW, WE COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PROB30 IS INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES,
EXCLUDING TCL, EFFECTIVE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 90 72 91 / 0 40 10 60
ANNISTON 72 90 72 90 / 10 40 10 50
BIRMINGHAM 74 91 74 93 / 10 40 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 74 92 74 93 / 10 20 30 20
CALERA 73 94 73 95 / 10 40 20 30
AUBURN 74 90 74 90 / 10 30 10 50
MONTGOMERY 74 92 74 93 / 10 30 20 40
TROY 73 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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