670
FXUS64 KBMX 170441
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
BROAD RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HOLDS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF MAINTAINS A LOW (<20%)
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH MAY MISS THIS DISTURBANCE, POTENTIALLY TRAPPING
IT UNDER THE RIDGE, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EXACT TRAJECTORY
PERSISTS. UNTIL THE SYSTEM'S PATH CLARIFIES, WE EXPECT INCREASED
GULF MOISTURE AND HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL AL, FAVORING A WARMING TREND AND REDUCED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-
90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY
REACHING 100-105. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR
POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MID-WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PROB30 IS INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES,
EXCLUDING TCL, EFFECTIVE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 91 72 92 / 10 50 20 40
ANNISTON 72 90 72 91 / 10 50 20 40
BIRMINGHAM 74 91 74 93 / 0 50 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 74 93 75 94 / 0 20 10 20
CALERA 73 94 73 96 / 0 40 20 30
AUBURN 74 90 74 91 / 10 30 20 50
MONTGOMERY 74 93 74 93 / 0 30 20 30
TROY 73 91 73 92 / 0 20 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page