786
FXUS64 KBMX 171704
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW TO MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WE'RE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MAIN RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. WE ALSO HAVE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THAT WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER AND GET PICKED UP BY THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PULL IN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AL
FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, THE
DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST AND THE MAIN RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE'S STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
CLOUD COVER MIGHT LIMIT THE DAYTIME HEATING. WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY AS HEAT INDICES COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WE'VE STARTED TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF CENTRAL AL OVER THE PAST HOUR. I EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
PEAK HEATING IN THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. I'LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE AS PROB30S FOR BHM, EET, MGM, AND AUO. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF TCL, SO I WON'T INCLUDE MENTION THERE.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
GENERALLY AFTER 01-03Z LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THE PATTERN DOESN'T
CHANGE MUCH FOR TOMORROW, SO I'LL KEEP A SIMILAR TREND FOR
DIRUNAL WIND INCREASES AS WE'VE SEEN, INCREASING WINDS TO 8-10KTS
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 72 92 73 / 50 20 30 20
ANNISTON 90 72 91 73 / 50 20 30 20
BIRMINGHAM 91 74 94 75 / 40 20 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 10 10
CALERA 94 73 96 74 / 30 20 20 20
AUBURN 90 74 91 74 / 50 20 30 30
MONTGOMERY 93 74 94 75 / 30 20 20 30
TROY 91 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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