899
FXUS64 KBMX 172338
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW TO MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WE'RE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MAIN RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. WE ALSO HAVE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THAT WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER AND GET PICKED UP BY THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PULL IN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AL
FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, THE
DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST AND THE MAIN RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE'S STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
CLOUD COVER MIGHT LIMIT THE DAYTIME HEATING. WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY AS HEAT INDICES COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GENERALLY
AFTER 01-03Z, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. VCTS IS MAINTAINED AT BHM
THROUGH 01Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. ADDITIONALLY, AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EET AND TCL BETWEEN 00Z AND
01Z; A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY REACHING TCL REMAINS LOWER AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LOOKING AHEAD, A SIMILAR TREND OF DIURNAL
WIND INCREASES IS EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS REACHING 8-10 KTS AFTER
16Z TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY IS HIGHEST AT MGM AND AUO, WHERE A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN
INCLUDED, THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 92 73 92 / 20 30 20 60
ANNISTON 72 91 73 91 / 20 30 20 60
BIRMINGHAM 74 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 60
TUSCALOOSA 74 94 75 94 / 20 10 10 40
CALERA 73 96 74 96 / 20 20 20 50
AUBURN 74 91 74 91 / 20 30 30 60
MONTGOMERY 74 94 75 94 / 20 20 30 50
TROY 73 93 73 93 / 20 40 50 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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