315
FXUS64 KBMX 180400
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE AXIS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
THOSE AREAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS AS WELL, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. THIS
EVOLUTION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD, MAINTAINING OUR AREA ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY.
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER, POSSESSING A 10-30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM LACKS SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION OR A CONCENTRATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS,
COMBINED WITH MODEL GUIDANCE THAT REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
PRIMARY SCENARIOS, CONTRIBUTES TO CONTINUED FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT AN EASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE, STEERING IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THIS WOULD FACILITATE AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA, LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY. THIS OUTCOME TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS
SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOPED TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
SHOULD THIS PATTERN DEVELOP, THE DISTURBANCE WOULD TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST WHILE THE MAIN RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED JUST TO THE
WEST.
THE SECOND SCENARIO INVOLVES THE SYSTEM REMAINING IN THE GULF FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BY THE RIDGE AND DRIFTING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE INLAND MOISTURE TRANSPORT;
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE
DAILY AS CONVERGENT BANDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS SCENARIO OFTEN
OCCURS WITH WEAKER, SMALLER SYSTEMS THAT LACK THE VERTICAL DEPTH
NECESSARY FOR THE TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THEIR MOTION. THIS
POSSIBILITY IS INCREASINGLY REFLECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS AND WARRANTS CONTINUED MONITORING.
IN EITHER CASE, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THESE PEAK TEMPERATURES, AS DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL INFLUENCES COULD MITIGATE DAYTIME
HEATING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, PARTICULARLY FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED
105 DEGREES DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GENERALLY
AFTER 01-03Z, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. VCTS IS MAINTAINED AT BHM
THROUGH 01Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. ADDITIONALLY, AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EET AND TCL BETWEEN 00Z AND
01Z; A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY REACHING TCL REMAINS LOWER AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LOOKING AHEAD, A SIMILAR TREND OF DIURNAL
WIND INCREASES IS EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS REACHING 8-10 KTS AFTER
16Z TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY IS HIGHEST AT MGM AND AUO, WHERE A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN
INCLUDED, THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 91 73 92 / 10 30 20 60
ANNISTON 71 91 73 92 / 10 30 20 60
BIRMINGHAM 72 92 75 94 / 10 30 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 73 94 75 95 / 10 20 20 30
CALERA 72 94 74 95 / 10 30 20 40
AUBURN 73 90 74 91 / 10 40 30 60
MONTGOMERY 72 94 74 94 / 20 50 30 50
TROY 72 92 73 92 / 20 50 40 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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